Blue Ammonia using Natural Gas – 3 Statements, Cash Waterfall & NPV/IRR Analysis

Blue ammonia is a promising sustainable fuel. Produced by combining hydrogen and nitrogen, with carbon capture technology mitigating emissions, it offers a low-carbon alternative to traditional fuels. Its versatile applications span power generation to transportation, fostering a greener energy landscape while addressing climate change concerns.

Fin-wiser has developed an integrated and comprehensive Blue Ammonia Production Plant Model that helps organizations assess the financial viability of setting up and operating an ammonia production plant using Natural Gas as Feedstock, Carbon Capture and storage, and in-built hydrogen production unit.

The Model includes assumptions related to:

1. Development cost, Construction costs, and Developer’s Fee
2. Plant processing capacity and Ammonia Production.
3. Ammonia Sales, Gate fees, and other sources of revenue.
4. Feedstock cost (Natural Gas) and Carbon Sequestration Cost
5. Variable O&M cost per ton (divided into 8 subheads such as Salary, Electricity, Boiler Feed Water, Cooling Water, and Catalyst & Chemicals) and other fixed costs (SPV, insurance, land lease, community payment, management fee & more)
6. Flexible Funding Profile – Cash equity, Bridge Loan, Bank Debt, DSRA, and Bank overdraft
7. Working Capital Assumptions related to accounts receivable and payables.
8. Straight Line and Accelerated Depreciation option
9. Annuity, Sculpted Debt, and Even Principal Repayment options
10. Inflation and Indexation
11. VAT during the construction and operations phase

Model Output includes:

1. Project IRR & NPV
2. Equity IRR & NPV
3. Minimum and Average DSCR
4. LLCR and PLCR
5. Equity Payback Period
6. Levelized Call of Ammonia (LCOA)
7. Cash Waterfall
8. Debt Service Profile
9. Integrated Financial Statements
10. Fully Integrated Dashboard

Model Package includes:

1. Excel-based financial model (Excel binary format i.e. xlsb) We can send via email, Macro Word Document which includes the VBA Code that is used in the model for the user’s reference.

Why Fin-wiser’s Financial Model Template:

1. Our model allows greater flexibility in terms of deciding upon the forecast period length. Users can choose from Monthly, Quarterly, Semi-Annual, or Annual forecast period lengths. This provides more detailed data for Analysis.
2. The model is divided into two phases i.e. Construction and Operations. The user has the flexibility to decide upon each period length individually and can also choose to populate each model phase on a monthly, quarterly, semi-annual, or annual basis.
3. All revenue and cost assumptions can be input into 3 scenarios. This helps users to assess the impact of multiple business scenarios in one model. This can be operated simply with a click of a button.
4. The Debt funding drawdown has 3 scenarios that can help users to assess the impact on the IRR and make the best possible negotiations with the financial institutions.
5. The debt repayment has been profiled with 3 scenarios i.e. Annuity payment, Even Principal Payment, and Debt sculpted repayment. You can change the scenario with a click of a button and assess the impact on IRR.
6. The model is built with Financial Modeling Best Practices and has clearly defined input, calculations, output cells, and tabs to help even a rookie Excel user operate the model efficiently.
7. Our Models are thoroughly reviewed, and Quality-checked for Arithmetic and Logical flow

Technical Specifications:

1. The model uses Macros (VBA) especially to consider the interest during the construction phase in the Uses of Funds Table. To run the model optimally, keep macros enabled. In case you do not like Macros, you could manually disable or remove the Macros and will have to rework the model’s logic to be used without Macros, but it is not recommended by the author.
2. The model is built using the Microsoft Excel 2019 version for Windows. Please note, on certain Mac laptops or MS Excel prior to 2007, Excel with Macros can slow down your computer if your PC does not have enough processing power.
3. We advise you not to delete or insert rows and columns into the model if you are not aware of the model structure as it can distort model functioning. If you need assistance with customizing the model template, the author is more than willing to help you. Simply contact us and send your model template as well as specifications. We will then get back to you with a quotation for the customization service (billable hours & completion date).
4. The model uses Cell Styles